Oscars: Who Will/Should Win
I haven't missed an Oscar ceremony since 1970. And I pretty much hate the Oscars. They get everything wrong, sometimes egregiously so. They screw up TCM's schedule every year (the 31 days of Oscar is pretty much the only time of year I don't turn to TCM first). The ceremony is a glitz-fest self-congratulatory slog. The Oscars are anti-cinema. I hate them so much.
And it is in that spirit that I write about the year in Oscar, for they are in my DNA. I can't quit them. I positively swill in their ale. These are my predicted winners, (who WILL win) and my preferred winners (who SHOULD win, of the nominees, if I had a vote. Which I don't).
Please note: I do this early. Doing predictions a day before the ceremony when all the hype has happened is for wimps.
Best picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Who Will Win: One Battle After Another. It has lost a bit of momentum, but has dominated the critic's awards. It's also really good.
Who Should Win: I love OBAA and Bugonia, but I probably was most impressed with how Marty Supreme put everything together for the year's most satisfying experience at the movies. I am going with Marty.
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Who Will Win: Chalamet feels inevitable. He has lightened up a little on the campaigning and is at least acting humble all of a sudden, which should help him. It is also an absolutely great performance.
Who Should Win: Hawke. A heartbreaking performance from a Hollywood favorite (that matters). Maybe an upset happens here as the academy leans into the veteran cache, but I doubt it.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Who Will Win: I am calling for an upset here and saying Lindo. A much-loved vet and the heart and soul of the year's best loved movie.
Who Should Win: Probably would go with Del Toro. He is the moral center of OBAA and produced the most memes.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Who Will Win: Buckley. Just feels like an Oscar performance, and Best Actress is very often goes to a young-ish up and comer (look it up!).
Who Should Win: Byrne, in a cakewalk. Just an astonishing performance.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Who Will Win: Taylor. A very competitive category. There was a lot of sentiment going towards Madigan, but if feels like the momentum of that performance is waning (the poor showing of the film in the nominations – zero other than this – doesn't help, either)
Who Should Win: Taylor. For the most impact in the least amount of screen time.
Best animated feature film
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
Who Will Win: Zootopia 2. Interesting battle between Zoo and KPop, but KPop is more phenomenon than Oscar-worthy.
Who Should Win: Zootopia 2 (I have to admit to having seen none of the nominees).
Best animated short film
Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters
Who Will Win: Retirement Plan.
Who Should Win: No clue (sorry, no disrespect intended).
Achievement in cinematography
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Who Will Win: Sinners, Autumn Arkapaw.
Who Should Win: OBAA, Michael Bauman. He is overdue.
Achievement in costume design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Who Will Win: Sinners.
Who Should Win: Marty Supreme.
Achievement in directing
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Who will Win: PTA. At last.
Who Should Win: PTA. Should have won for The Master and There Will be Blood.
Best documentary feature film
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor
Who Will Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Just sounds timely.
Who Should Win: Again, no disrespect, but I have no pony in this race.
Best documentary short film
All the Empty Rooms
Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: Were and Are Gone
The Devil Is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness
Who Will Win: In the spirit of the competition, I have to pick one, right? Going with Armed Only with a Camera.
Who Should Win: The Devil is Busy. I like the title.
Achievement in film editing
F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Who Will Win: Sinners keeps cleaning up the tech awards.
Who Should Win: Marty Supreme. Give Ronald Bronstein his laurels.
Best international feature film
The Secret Agent, Brazil
It Was Just an Accident, France
Sentimental Value, Norway
Sirāt, Spain
The Voice of Hind Rajab, Tunisia
Who Will Win: The Secret Agent, in an incredibly strong category.
Who Should Win: The Secret Agent.
Achievement in casting
Hamnet, Nina Gold
Marty Supreme, Jennifer Venditti
One Battle after Another, Cassandra Kulukundis
The Secret Agent, Gabriel Domingues
Sinners, Francine Maisler
Who Will Win: Sinners. I am confused about this category. It almost seems like they mean "Best Cast" and not Best Casting, as I write about here.
Who Should Win: Marty Supreme is populated with so many faces and bodies that add to the overall texture of the film. They also found ODessa A'Zion, coaxed Gwyneth Paltrow out of retirement (she's perfect), and found an ideal villain in Shark Tank host Kevin O'Leary.
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling
Frankenstein, Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
Kokuho, Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
Sinners, Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
The Smashing Machine, Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
The Ugly Stepsister, Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Who Will Win: Sinners. The tech awards keep coming.
Who Should Win: Frankenstein.
Original Score
Bugonia, Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein, Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet, Max Richter
One Battle after Another, Jonny Greenwood
Sinners, Ludwig Goransson
Who Will Win: Sinners. Goransson is a hot name. The score kind of sucks, though.
Who Should Win: Jonny Greenwood is due.
Original Song
"Dear Me" from Diane Warren: Relentless; music and lyric by Diane Warren
"Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters; music and lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
"I Lied to You" from Sinners; music and lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
"Sweet Dreams of Joy" from Viva Verdi!; music and lyric by Nicholas Pike
"Train Dreams" from Train Dreams; music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyric by Nick Cave
Who Will Win: Golden. Easiest award to predict this year.
Who Should Win: Train Dreams. Because I like Nick Cave.
Achievement in production design
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Who Will Win: It's going to be Sinners again, isn't it?
Who Should Win: Marty Supreme. This Jack Fisk disrespect ends now!
Best live action short film
Butcher's Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen's Period Drama
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva
Who Will Win: A Friend of Dorothy seems to be winning a bunch of other competitions.
Who Should Win: Jane Austen's Period Drama. I admire the snarkiness of the title.
Achievement in sound
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirāt
Who Will Win: F1. Calling for the upset here.
Who Should Win: Sirat. There is a LOT of sound in Sirat.
Achievement in visual effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners
Who Will Win: Avatar. Throwing it a bone.
Who Should Win: Sinners.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Bugonia, screenplay by Will Tracy
Frankenstein, written for the screen by Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet, screenplay by Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell
One Battle after Another, written by Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams, screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Who Will Win: OBAA, PTA. In a cakewalk.
Who Should Win: PTA. "I am a fan of alcohol and drugs."
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Blue Moon, written by Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident, written by Jafar Panahi; script collaborators: Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme, written by Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value, written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Sinners, written by Ryan Coogler
Who Will Win: Sinners and Ryan Coogler take it.
Who Should Win: Marty Supreme. More laurels for Bronnie.
